Football World Cup a positive for Adidas- guidance and tariffs in focus

Sportswear manufacturer Adidas is set to publish its second-quarter results this Thursday.

What to expect from Adidas

Following a strong start to the year, the sportswear maker is likely to continue riding a wave of success. This is due in part to generally robust brand momentum and the Men’s Football World Cup in the US, Canada, and Mexico, which began in June and has reached an unprecedented scale in terms of teams and matches. Adidas supplied kit not only to Germany but also to the finalists Argentina and Spain, as well as the host nation Mexico. In response to a Bloomberg enquiry, the company reported selling four times as many shirts and twice as many balls as at the previous World Cup. CEO Björn Gulden put expected revenue at 1.5 billion euros, the upper end of the targeted range of 1 to 1.5 billion euros.

However, there are headwinds too. The war in the Middle East had little direct impact on business in the first quarter; however, high oil prices and renewed inflation concerns left consumers, particularly in Europe, more cautious. Gulden has also warned of potentially sharp increases in transport and material costs. The strong euro is weighing on the company as well. Pressure from US tariff policy is likely to persist, even though some duties have been ruled unlawful in court. Investors are awaiting details on any refunds.

Late last week, investors were displeased that Adidas once again refrained from publishing preliminary figures, the second time in a row. This could suggest there were no major positive surprises.

Despite the strong momentum in the first quarter, Adidas maintained its forecast for 2026 in light of the uncertain environment. In the current year, revenue is expected to rise by a high single-digit percentage on a currency-adjusted basis. In absolute terms, this would represent an increase of around 2 billion euros. In 2025, the Adidas brand’s revenue rose by 13%, on a currency-adjusted basis, to 24.8 billion euros. Operating profit is expected to improve from just under 2.1 billion to around 2.3 billion euros. However, tariffs and currency effects are likely to weigh on profits by 400 million euros, according to a statement at the end of April.

What analysts are expecting

Analysts expect further growth in revenue and profit for the second quarter. They anticipate revenue of just under 6.6 billion euros, compared with nearly 6 billion a year earlier. On a currency-adjusted basis, Adidas may have achieved growth in the low double-digit percentage range. For the closely watched gross margin, experts in a consensus compiled by Bloomberg expect a decline from 51.7% to around 51.2%. Operating profit, by contrast, is likely to rise significantly from 546 million to 615.6 million euros. Analysts also expect higher net profit.

For the full year, analysts’ revenue forecasts are in line with the company’s guidance. However, they expect operating profit to be higher than Adidas has so far indicated.

Wendy Liu at US bank JPMorgan believes sentiment in the sporting-goods sector is currently subdued overall. However, Adidas could continue to benefit from the weakness of its US rival Nike and, along with other companies, gain market share. She pointed to solid brand momentum and expects further growth in the coming years.

The Swiss bank UBS also expressed confidence: Adidas is operating from a position of strength, and the World Cup is more than just a positive one-off effect, according to analyst Robert Krankowski. He sees long-term growth opportunities in the running segment.